Classical deterrence theory revisited: An empirical analysis of Police Force Areas in England and Wales

The severity, certainty and celerity (swiftness) of punishment are theorised to influence offending through deterrence. Yet is rarely included in empirical studies criminal activity the three deterrence factors have never been analysed one model. We address this gap with an analysis using unique panel data recorded theft, burglary violence against person for 41 Police Force Areas England Wales variables that capture these find affect crime different ways. Increased detection by police (certainty) associated reduced theft but not violence. variation sanction has a significant impact on offences or offences. average prison sentences (severity) reduce only. account results terms challenges likely motivations underlying violent acquisitive crime.